the senate administration responsible for urban development regularly prepares population forecasts as a basis for the city's planning authorities. the forecast was last updated in the spring of 2016. the development of migration flows to berlin, which could not be predicted on this scale in 2011, increased the need to update the small-scale forecast. the currently valid population forecast for berlin and the districts 2015 – 2030 presents the future development of the city in three variants
With the strong influx of refugees in 2015 and 2016, the call for a new forecast became loud. an evaluation shows that the current population forecast with its middle variant is robust enough to continue to serve as a planning basis for the time being. Berlin's next population forecast is scheduled for spring 2019.
For the population forecast, I regularly conducted internal and external migration analyses and plausibility checks.
(Note: The project descriptions modified by me and presented here have been created jointly by the respective project participants)